Mathematically speaking, if at least 55% of your bets are correct, you’ll make money in the long-run betting on sports. SportsPicks.AI was above that 55% threshold in all seven sports that we cover in the year 2021.

Here are the winning percentages by sport for the year 2021:

‍Some highlight stats:

‍SportsPicks.AI had 82% win rate against the spread on NFL through the first four weeks of the 2021 season. This is because early on Vegas does not have reliable team performance data and struggles with setting accurate lines.

SportsPicks.AI had a 73% ROI on our NFL bets over the course of the 2021 NFL season. This means if you started with $1000 in your betting account and followed our NFL picks for the whole season, you would have ended the season with $1,730.

Vegas predicts that the score of a game will be LA Lakers 84 -  Denver Nuggets 87.  They set the initial line at Denver -3. LA has a much larger fan base and more bettors, so 60% of the money comes in on LA. Vegas wants to get that ratio back to 50%, so they move the line to Denver -2.

SportsPicks.AI sees that the actual line should be -3, but it has artificially moved to -2 which creates value for bettors. Nothing materially has changed about the game or predicted outcome, the only thing that changed is that too much money came in on the LA Lakers and the books need to balance their risk.

SportsPicks.AI recommends taking Denver -2 because the predicted outcome of the game is -3, so getting Denver at -2 is a deal and has a higher probability of winning than Denver.

This is an example of one opportunity that our Artificial Intelligence would be capable of identifying on a given day.

Sports are random, there’s no denying that. If you’ve ever watched March Madness, you know that anything can happen and a team playing with more motivation or team chemistry can buck historical performance.

However, you don't need to be right 100% or even 80% of the time, over the long run if you can be correct 55-60% of the time you will see a positive return. With so many available bets on any given day, there’s always a small group of bets that are predictable enough to achieve a long-term win rate above 55%.

The hard part is identifying which bets those are, and that is where Sportspick.AI comes into play. We analyze millions of datasets every morning across multiple sports across multiple leagues. We then select the three bets that give you the best chance to sustain that aforementioned 55-60% win rate.  

The house always wins because the casual bettor makes poor decisions, especially in sports. People may bet on their team because they’re a die-hard fan, but it’s hard to bet on the Lions against the Chiefs if you’re trying to win a bet. Additionally, sports parlays are the number one profit center in a casino in 2022. Again, people make poor decisions. We believe that SportsPicks.AI educates you and helps you make a more informed decision with a higher win rate.

Further to that, the house always wins because their goal is to balance the bets 50/50 on each side so they can take their 10% cut, otherwise known as "The Vig".

If you bet $100 and win, you’ll typically be paid out $190, the house takes the remaining $10 as a sort of service fee for offering the bet. This allows the house to always win because if there’s an even amount of money on each side, regardless of the outcome, they'll keep 10% of the winner’s return.

This, however, creates a conflict of interest for the books when setting the line, they will artificially adjust the line away from the true predicted line. This is done to encourage money to come in on a given side so they can maintain a 50/50 split of money on each side. These artificial line moves create an opportunity for bettors.

There are multiple different methods for predicting outcomes and, without knowing all of the data inputs and logic behind those models, it's hard to say who's models are the best.

We feel that our model is superior because of the many different data variables that we’re able to factor in. SportsPicks.AI works as a model ensemble, combining several independent in-house model predictions based on historical team stats as well as factoring in what other models and expert picks are on the game.

There are other models out there that are quite good, and instead of trying to beat them, we simply use their prediction as an input to be factored into our own model alongside team stats and line movement volatility to arrive at a final prediction for a given game/bet.

Simply put, SportsPicks.AI stands on the shoulders of other successful models, factoring those picks in alongside our internal model picks.  

Sure, if you bet a lot of money on the winning team(s). You could, in theory, bet $100k on the Yankees one day and if they win, well, so do you!

But in all seriousness, the average bettor should not place such a huge wager on single games (or parlays for that matter). Our system, statistically speaking, has shown that you’ll incrementally make money over the long term by using our picks.

You should never bet more than you can afford. You should also be aware that there will be losses. That’s part of the system and nature of the beast.